the timing law

NEWCOMB

The forgotten law returns as market infrastructure.

chi-squared 2.184

window: 256 gaps
digit 1: 30.1%
digit 9: 4.6%

project story

Newcomb v Benford

Simon Newcomb saw the law first. Frank Benford gave it the name history remembered. NEWCOMB turns that dispute into a protocol myth: the forgotten observer returns, and the market is forced to answer to the pattern it leaves behind.

This is not a dashboard dressed up as lore. It is a forensic scene. Every transaction leaves a gap. Every gap starts with a digit. When the rhythm gets too perfect, the story stops being organic.

case file 1881 / 1938 first sight / remembered name

Every trade arrives with a timestamp. Every timestamp creates a gap. Organic markets leave uneven gaps behind. Coordinated markets leave rhythm.

NEWCOMB reads the first digit of those gaps and compares the market against the distribution Simon Newcomb wrote down in 1881.

Timing, not size

Amounts can be randomized. Timing is harder to fake without giving up coordination.

First digits

Each transaction gap is reduced to its leading digit, then measured against the expected curve.

Automatic pressure

When the distribution breaks, the model routes a surcharge toward holders and liquidity.

on the

law

Before it had Benford's name, it had Newcomb's fingerprints.

Simon Newcomb noticed that the early pages of logarithm books were worn down first. Numbers beginning with 1 appeared more often than numbers beginning with 9.

In 1881 he described the pattern. Decades later, Frank Benford republished the phenomenon at scale, and history attached the law to Benford.

1881

Original signal

Newcomb describes the unequal frequency of leading digits in natural numbers.

30.1

The curve

Digit 1 dominates. Digit 9 almost disappears.

restored

The correction

The protocol is named for the person who saw the signal first.

fraud

Fabricated numbers often forget how nature counts.

Fake data tends to look too even. People invent numbers with human symmetry. Natural systems produce lopsided digits. NEWCOMB moves that suspicion from spreadsheets to Solana timing.

observed too even

expected lopsided

action price divergence

timing

The amount lies first. The clock lies last.

gap

Intervals

Each transaction is measured against the previous transaction in the sample window.

742ms

Leading digit

A 742 ms gap becomes 7. A 1,230 ms gap becomes 1.

tax

Coordination

The more rigid the rhythm, the further observed bars drift from the curve.

on the

hook

A transfer hook turns each swap into evidence.

The model is simple and legible: a hook records each new gap, writes the leading digit into a circular buffer, and updates the divergence score.

observed timing chi-squared 2.184

on the

surcharge

Manipulation should not be banned. It should become expensive.

quiet

Quiet zone

Normal variance passes without punishment.

curve

Convex pressure

The surcharge rises faster as divergence moves away from the expected curve.

flow

Paid by flow

The cost attaches to the activity that pushes the market out of distribution.

on the

distribution

The penalty leaves the attacker and returns to the market.

suspicious timing

surcharge

vault

holders + LPs

on the

invariant

No tribunal. No dashboard admin. No private exception.